Tomato hater, Sports lover

Diminishing returns and the offseason  

當報酬遞減法則遇上快艇的休賽季補強

原文網址 － 

http://clipperblog.com/2013/09/20/diminishing-returns-and-the-offseason/

This offseason was universally proclaimed a success for the Clippers. With the acquisitions of Jared Dudley and J.J. Redick, they made massive upgrades on the wings and also added some interesting versatility with tweener forward Antawn Jamison. The undercover star of last season’s team, Matt Barnes, was re-signed to a very reasonable deal and Darren Collison, signed on the cheap, helped mitigate the loss of Eric Bledsoe.

快艇隊這次的休賽季被外界一致認同是個成功休賽季。在得到Jared Dudley和J.J. Redick後，快艇隊的側翼進攻獲得顯著的升級。同時，增加了搖擺人前鋒Antawn Jamison為球隊增添一些有意思的多樣性。此外，以相當合理的價格簽回上一季球隊的隱形球星－Matt Barnes，和以便宜的價錢簽下Darren Collison，幫助球隊舒緩少了Eric Bledsoe的損失。

The Clippers gained net talent and none of the new players look to be a problematic fit. On the contrary, Redick, Dudley and Collison fit perfectly in the Clippers’ offense. That offense should be an explosive combination of shooting and dunks driven by the prowess of Chris Paul.

快艇隊增加了新的天份，而且這些新球員看起來沒有任何融入球隊的問題。相反的，Redick、Dudley和Collsion可以完美的融入快艇隊的進攻。由鬼神的Chris Paul主導的進攻應該可以成為灌籃大賽和三分球大賽的組合。

The thing is, offense wasn’t an issue last season, and an offense featuring Paul and Blake Griffin never will be an issue. Los Angeles scored at a rate of just 1.8 points per 100 possessions below the league leading Oklahoma City Thunder. Dudley and Redick should bridge that gap, but that additional 1.8 points per 100 possessions offensively is only equivalent to about four wins over the course of a season. And when you consider the losses of Bledsoe and Odom, who anchored the best qualified defensive lineup in the league, it’s hard to see this offseason making that large of an impact on the Clippers, at least in the regular season. Los Angeles will be largely counting on internal player development.

事實上，進攻在上一季並不是個問題，以Paul和Blake Griffin為主的進攻永遠不會是個問題。洛杉磯快艇隊上季得分效率以每一百次進攻來算的話只比進攻效率最佳的奧克拉荷馬雷霆隊少1.8分。Dudley和Redick應該能補上這段差距。然而，每百次進攻多這1.8分大概等同於整個賽季多個四勝而已。而你當考慮到失去了Bledsoe和Odom這兩位穩固聯盟最優質的防守陣容的球員時，很難去想像這個休賽季對快艇隊戰力有很大的影響，至少在常規賽時很難看到。洛杉磯快艇隊的未來很大一部份將要依賴內部球員的成長。

Last season’s obstacle was the lack of defense, especially on the interior. The Clippers’ defense got progressively worse throughout the year, and the losses of Bledsoe and Odom don’t help the case that L.A. will have a top flight defense this year.

上一季的失敗歸因於防守匱乏，尤其是禁區的鞏固。上季整季下來，快艇隊的防守是漸漸變差，而再損失Bledsoe和Odom後這狀況對於快艇隊這季成為防守強隊可是一點幫助都沒有。

NBA offenses have become more based on dribble penetrators who can compromise a defense’s shape and open up opportunities for teammates. In turn, centers who can protect the rim at a high level are a precious commodity because they help defenses maintain shape against these slashers.

NBA現今的進攻多數依賴運球切入者破壞防守陣勢和為隊友創造出機會。所以可以鞏固禁區的中鋒是貴重的資產，因為在面對切豆腐高手時他們能維持防守陣勢。

The Clippers have a glaring hole where that rim protector should be. Theoretically, it’s DeAndre Jordan, but lack of understanding on how to move defensively negates his elite athleticism. Will Doc Rivers be able to turn Jordan into a high level defender? It’s possible, but not something to bank on. Rivers doesn’t have a noted track record as a talent developer, and the ability to coach a killer defensive system may not be the same as the ability to turn an average defender into a great one. Jordan won’t suddenly “get it” after hearing some mystical secret of big man defense from Rivers. Learning takes time.

快艇隊的禁區有塊大洞，因為他們缺乏鞏固禁區的人。理論上來說，這該是DeAndre Jordan的工作，但由於缺乏防守腳步，使他優異的體能無法發揮。Doc Rivers能將Jordan變成優秀的防守者嗎？可能性雖存在，但不敢寄望於這個可能性。Rivers並不以改造大師聞名，而執教出一個窒息式防守體系的能力不等同於將普通的防守者改造成優異的防守者的能力。在得到一些Rivers的高個防守密技後，Jordon並不會突然開竅。學習是件耗時的事。

Let’s go back to my initial assertion that the Clippers offseason acquisitions would only improve the offense around two points per 100 possessions and discuss the idea of diminishing returns. Diminishing returns says that as more things are added together, the value of each of these things diminishes. Let’s say LeBron James is worth 17 wins above average (if a team of average players wins 41 games; replace one of those with James and the team wins 55 games), Dwyane Wade is worth 14 games, and Chris Bosh is worth 13. Does a completely average team that replaces three of its players with these three win 76 games? Well, no, not quite. These three players have overlapping roles so together they make less of an individual impact. That’s the general idea. Diminishing returns has been shown to have an effect on a number of basketball statistics, most famously rebounding.

回到我開頭主張快艇隊休賽期間的操作只會讓每百次進攻增加兩分，和討論報酬遞減的概念。所謂的報酬遞減是說當更多的事物疊加在一起，其產生的價值會遞減。假設說LeBron James的勝場價值比平均多17勝（假設一個以平均程度球員組成的球隊能贏41場比賽；將James取代其中一個球員可以讓球隊勝場增至55場），Dwyane Wade值14勝而Chris Bosh值13勝。將這個平均球隊以這三位球員取代後可以贏到76場嗎？嗯哼，不會喔。這三位球員腳色會重疊，所以組在一起時影響力會比單人時來的少。這是個普遍的概念。報酬遞減的效果已在很多籃球數據上被證明有解釋力，尤以籃板最為顯著。

Why does this matter? Adding more really good offensive players to an already top level offense isn’t going to improve said offense as much as these players’ talent would indicate. There are only so many possessions to go around, and Redick and Dudley aren’t going to space the floor that much more than last year’s wings. L.A. didn’t address its biggest issue of frontcourt defense this offseason, instead opting to pay a lot of money and assets for a slight offensive improvement. This approach could be validated if Rivers’ defensive system is good enough to cover up for the lack of rim protector, or if Jordan and/or Griffin makes a miraculous jump. Right now though, the offseason is looking less and less like a major success.

這很重要嗎？再增加更多好的進攻球員到一個進攻能力快封頂的球隊不會讓這支球隊進步到這些球員所能表現的程度。球權就只有那麼多，而Redick和Dudley不會拉開比上一季側翼球員更多的空間。洛杉磯快艇隊並沒有針對前場防守這個大洞在休賽季做補強，反而付更多錢和資產來使進攻有些微進步。若Rivers的防守體系好到掩蓋禁區防守者的話，或Jordan和（或）Griffin奇蹟似的進步的話，這個動作可能還有用。不過現在，這個休賽季看來越來越不像是個大躍進。

心得：

這篇文章和自己的看法滿相近的。快艇這季的補強現階段都是針對自己失去的球員作些微的提升。
但翻開現在的陣容名單，去年最大的禁區防守問題還是在那邊。

也就是說今年快艇補強帶有賭博性質，就是賭DJ和BG能開竅。
能藉由賽季最大的補強－Doc Rivers的防守體系補足這個洞。

不過我自己覺得即使Doc真的讓他們開竅了，禁區替補的防守和球員的健康也都是隱憂。

上季的快艇比賽輸球往往都是因為當機時無法有效的制止對方。
BG本身的身高問題對於他防守不利，而DJ空有體能卻往往只想蓋火鍋，反而失去防守位置或籃板卡位。
這些防守意識和防守基礎功夫的問題實在很難推斷下一季能否被Doc給改造。

此外，這次的後場補強偏攻擊性質，防守上真的是不增反減。
若快艇後場防守比去年差，前場防守又無法鞏固的話。戰績說不定比去年還要慘。