Shooting Blanks: The Players With the Worst ShotScore
空包彈高手：以ShotScore分析之最差得分手
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Yesterday we looked at ShotScore, a new method to identify the NBA’s best scorers. You can read the full piece here, but in a nutshell, the method compares the actual point yield of an individual NBA shooter against an estimated tally of what an average NBA shooter would accrue from that exact same set of shots. This is a useful way to evaluate shooting because unlike field goal percentage, it accounts for where on the floor the shooter is most active and factors that in to the analysis. Midrange shooters are compared against the NBA’s average midrange production, etc.
昨天我們研究了ShotScore（分數剩餘），一個分析NBA最佳得分手的新方法。想了解的話，你可以閱讀「分數剩餘」全文。簡言之，這個方法比較每位NBA得分手實際得分和平均NBA球員在同樣的出手狀況下的得分。這是個實用的投籃衡量方法，因為其和命中率不同的是它描繪出每位球員在最習慣的投籃區域和這種趨向的原因。中距離射手比較對象便是NBA平均的中距離分數產出，以此類推。
Players like Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Jose Calderon, and Kyle Korver immediately rose to the top; these players consistently outperform league averages from their most active shooting zones. But, it’s also instructive to identify the players who make shots at rates much lower than league averages, the guys that regularly underperform relative to their shooting cohort. Here is the bottom five:
Stephen Curry、LeBron James、Kevin Durant、Jose Calderon和Kyle Korver等球員當然成為此數據的佼佼者。這些球員一直在其活躍的出手區域勝過聯盟平均值。而去檢視那些投籃命中率低於聯盟平均的球員，那些一直表現得比其他得分手差的傢伙亦是件有意義的事。以下是倒數五名：
Lowest ShotScore, 2012-13 season
2012-13球季最差的ShotScore
1. Monta Ellis, -159
2. Greg Monroe, -134
3. Ramon Sessions, -130
4. Russell Westbrook, -127
5. Ricky Rubio, -115
These five players are all relatively active shooters, but fail to accrue points from the field at average NBA rates in their most active zones. In other words, each player struggles in his own unique way.
這五位球員都算是現役著名的得分手，但在其主要的進攻區域之得分產出卻無法達到聯盟平均水準的命中率。換句話說，這五位球員都有屬於自己的困境。
Monta and Jose: The Dallas Odd Couple
Monta和Jose：達拉斯小牛隊的奇怪組合
You could make a good roommates sitcom about a European perfectionist, forced to work alongside a purely American free spirit who "doesn’t play by the rules." Or you could just watch the Mavs this season. It will be fascinating to see Ellis play on a team led by Dirk Nowitizki. But it might even be more interesting to watch his backcourt interactions with Jose Calderon.
你可以和你的好室友一起看主題為一位歐洲完美主義者被迫和一位「不守規矩」的美國自由主義者合作的連續劇。或者你們大可直接看小牛隊這季的比賽。看Ellis在Dirk Nowitizki的主導下打球很吸引人。但觀賞他和Jose Calderon的後場合作可能更有趣。
Calderon and Ellis are two of the most noteworthy shooters in the league, but for very different reasons. Basically, Calderon is a great shooter, and Ellis is not. Calderon is particularly lethal in front of the basket.
Calderon和Ellis兩位都是聯盟中最值得一提的射手，但被注意的理由卻大不同。基本上，Calderon是個優質射手，但Ellis不是。Calderon在籃框正前方特別的致命。
On the other hand, Ellis is a very creative player with a knack for getting a shot pretty much whenever he wants. This is an overlooked skill in most player evaluations. Ellis’s problems begin the moment his shots leave his fingertips. Simply put, he’s a below-average shooter with a volume problem. The combination of his high activity and his terrible efficiency has frustrated fans from Oakland to Oshkosh, and this year he brings his game to Dallas.
另一方面，Ellis是個有本領在任何位置都能出手的創造出手機會型球員。這是個在大多數的球員評價上都被忽略技巧。Ellis的問題在於他出手的那一瞬間。簡單來說他是個問題很多的低於平均值得分手。他積極的出手和糟糕的效率這個組合套餐讓奧克蘭（金州勇士隊）到澳旭扣旭（密爾瓦基公鹿隊）的球迷都失望不已，而今年他的打球方式降臨達拉斯。
Ellis shoots below league averages from everywhere, except for one tiny baseline area where he’s hardly active. But that actually might be the key to his improvement. If Rick Carlisle can reduce Ellis’s activity and get him to more effectively pick his spots, Ellis has a tremendous chance of improving. He has never really played in a good system with decent offensive teammates. Playing alongside savvy veteran scorers like Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, and Vince Carter should help. If that team intelligence and Calderon’s shot discretion rub off on Ellis, there’s a very good chance we will witness a drastic upswing in his efficiency.
Ellis的投籃命中率無論在哪個位置都低於聯盟平均，除了底線那塊他幾乎不太出手的區域外。但這很有可能是他進步的關鍵。如果Rick Carlisle可以減少Ellis的活動區域並讓他更有效率的選擇出手位置，Ellis將有相當的進步機會。他還未有機會在充滿進攻優秀隊友的好體系下打球。與Nowitziki、Shawn Marion和Vince Carter這些進攻理解力強的老將旁邊打球應該對他有所幫助。如果小牛隊的進攻教練團和Calderon的出手選擇能磨一磨Ellis，我們將很有機會見證他進攻效率的顯著進步。
Either way, this odd couple in Dallas will make for must-watch League Pass TV this season. Signing him was a risk, but in the same way that Nowitzki and Calderon know about shooting effectiveness, that modern-day Texas tycoon, Mark Cuban, knows a thing or two about investment effectiveness. Let’s hope it doesn’t turn into a soap opera.
無論如何，這對小牛的奇怪組合將是這季的重要看點。簽下他是有風險，但就如同Nowitzki和Calderon理解有效的出手般，現代德州商業鉅子Mark Cuban也理解一些投資的效力。讓我們期望這不會變成一齣肥皂劇吧。
On Rondo, Russell, and Rubio
關於Rondo、Russell和Rubio
Even though we love to blast Rajon Rondo because "he can’t shoot," there are a few point guards more deserving of that rep, prominent floor generals who actually fail to create points at above-average rates, from both the inside and the outside. Rondo, believe it or not, can actually makes shots at rates above league averages. In fact, in the last few seasons, he has made his elbow jumper at elite rates, partly because he’s left open and partly because he is an improving shooter.
雖然我們熱愛抨擊Rondo「他不會投籃」，但有些控球後衛更該得到這名聲。那些著名的場上指揮官無論在籃下或外線都無法以高於聯盟平均值的效率得分。至於Rondo，信不信由你，他的45度角中距離跳投是聯盟的佼佼者，一部分是因為他常常被放投而另一部份則是因他是個更優秀的射手。
Russell Westbrook is one of the most polarizing players in the league. Although most of us love him, the jury is still out on just how effective of a teammate he is. He’s obviously a great playmaker, but he has a tendency to shoot a little too frequently, which in some cases takes away more efficient options from his teammates (one in particular). As a scorer, Westbrook could improve his efficiency by learning from one of his biggest rivals.
Russell Westbrook是聯盟中最極端的球員之一。雖然大多數的人都愛他，對於他是否是個給力的隊友則依然心存懷疑。他顯然的是位優異的進攻發動者，但他太過傾向投球，某些時候這抹煞掉一些隊友更有效率的進攻機會（尤其是某一位隊友）。以一個得分手自居，Westbrook可以向他最大的競爭對手之一學習以強化進攻效率。
Back in the 2002-03 season, a young Tony Parker attempted 243 3-point shots; a decade later, during the 2012-13 season, Parker only shot 68 3s. Parker and the Spurs recognized that not only were these shots not very effective (31.3 percent for his career), they also introduced a huge opportunity cost. Every time Parker shot a 3, it meant he wasn’t attacking or playmaking. The new and improved Tony Parker doesn’t take those 3s himself, he helps create them for guys like Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, and Matt Bonner.
在2002-03球季時，年輕的Tony Parker出手243次的三分球。十年後的2012-13球季，Parker只投了68球三分球。Parker和馬刺隊都認清不單是這些投射效果不佳（31.3%的生涯三分球命中率），他們亦付出極大的機會成本。每當Parker投三分球時，代表他並沒有進攻籃框或製造隊友進攻機會。全新進化的Tony Parker不再自己砍三分，而是幫助像Danny Green、Kawhi Leonard和Matt Bonner等人製造出手機會。
There’s no doubt that defenses secretly love when Westbrook shoots from long range; he’s not very efficient, and it means he is not shredding through defenders, attacking, and dishing to open teammates. The fact that Westbrook attempted 300 3s last season is troubling — this was up from 196 the year before, plus he only made 32 percent of them. It’s really hard to justify this level of activity. Westbrook is much better suited on the basket side of the 3-point line, pulling up from the elbow, driving to the hoop, drawing fouls, and distributing the ball.
防守方對於Westbrook投長距離跳投時毫無疑問的會暗自竊喜。他並不是很有效率，而這表示他並沒有在撕裂防線、進攻籃框和傳向空檔隊友。上季Westbrook出手300次三分球是件麻煩的事實，這比上上季的196球更多，再加上他只有32%的三分命中率。這個出手量並不容易修正。Westbrook更適合在三分線內進攻、在45度角中距離跳投、切入籃下、製造犯規和分享球權。
The good news is that in the same way that Peyton Manning and Tom Brady can be great without being great runners, it is possible to be a great NBA point guard without being a great shooter. In fact, Westbrook and Derrick Rose, two of the world’s best point guards, prove this on a regular basis. Still, Westbrook’s game, as great as it already is, could improve if he just stopped shooting all those 3s. Unfortunately, this season may not be the best time for him to stop. The loss of Kevin Martin has left the Thunder in dire need of replacement production from beyond the arc. We need to get Westbrook a Matt Bonner for Christmas.
好消息是如同Peyton Manning和Tom Brady（譯按：兩位NFL的超級巨星四分衛）不是飛毛腿但依舊是優秀四分衛，不是優質射手而成為NBA的頂級控衛並非不可能。事實上，Westbrook和Derrick Rose這兩位世上最佳的控球後衛一直以來都證明這點。仍然，就算Westbrook的比賽內容已經如此優異，少投點三分球便可使其更進步。不幸的是，這季可能不是他停止投三分的最佳時機。失去Kevin Martin後的雷霆隊急切的需要三分線外的替代方案。我們需要把Matt Bonner當聖誕節禮物送給Westbrook吧。
Another point guard with limited perimeter passing options is Charlotte’s Ramon Sessions. He is a wannabe attack guard who has the speed and skill to maneuver through NBA defenses, but has trouble finishing at the basket.
另一位控球後衛則是擁有有限的外線傳球選擇，他是夏洛特山貓的Ramon Sessions。他是個擁有速度和突破NBA防守者技巧的進攻慾望強大型後衛，但籃底下的放球能力卻有待加強。
Although he gets a lot of opportunities at the rim, Sessions converts less than half of them. He also struggles as a jump shooter, but to his credit, if his relative inactivity out there is any kind of clue, he seems aware of this limitation.
雖然他在籃下出手機會很多，Sessions投不進其中的一半。他的跳投也需要加強，但值得讚賞的是他似乎知道自己的極限，如果他在外圍出手不多能代表什麼的話。
In a way, Sessions is really similar to Ricky Rubio. Like Sessions, Rubio’s troubles are most extreme closest to the basket. He made a dismal 41 percent of his shots inside 7.5 feet last season, which was tied for worst in the NBA (with Austin Rivers and Randy Foye).
某方面來說，Sessions和Ricky Rubio相當類似。如同Sessions，Rubio最大的問題就在籃下。他上一季7.5呎內的投籃命中率是悲劇的41%，這是去年NBA的墊底之一（和Austin Rivers及Randy Foye共患難）。
Saying that Rubio has trouble finishing at the rim is kind of like saying that Toonces the cat has trouble driving on mountain roads. But Rubio’s troubles extend outward from the hoop. As it turns out, not all Spanish point guards are freakishly good shooters. When it comes to shooting efficiency, Rubio is no Calderon. Rubio's pretty lousy in those exact same elbow areas where Calderon thrives, and Rondo has greatly improved. So, to the people that continue to make those “Rondo can’t shoot” proclamations, I propose you take your sneers elsewhere, perhaps to Oklahoma, North Carolina, or Minnesota.
談論Rubio的籃下投籃毛病如同談論Toonces the cat開山路般（譯按：Wiki Toonces the driving cat －http://tinyurl.com/n4qowdu）。但Rubio的問題繼續往籃框外延伸。結果看來並非所有的西班牙裔控球後衛都是變態射手。當提到投籃效率時，Rubio不能和Calderon相提並論。Rubio在Calderon優異的45度角中距離表現頗差，而Rondo卻進步許多。所以對於那些繼續說「Rondo不會投籃」的人們，我建議你們去別的地方嘲弄吧，或許奧克拉荷馬（雷霆隊）、北卡羅萊納（山貓隊）或明尼蘇達（灰狼隊）會是個好地方。
Speaking of troubles near the basket, the Pistons' Greg Monroe presents another interesting example. Monroe was by far the NBA’s most active shooter near the basket last year. That’s good, except that he struggled to convert his shots down there. He has never met a close-range shot he doesn’t like. This is compounded by his immature midrange game. Although Monroe’s interior numbers weren’t terrible, his slightly below-average production combined with his extreme volume resulted in him arriving at the bottom of the ShotScore list.
說到籃下出手有困難，活塞隊的Greg Monroe成為另一個有趣的案例。Monroe是去年NBA籃下最活躍的球員之一。這很棒啦，除了他在那的出手難以得分外。他就是只喜歡在籃下出手。這和他不成熟的中距離有關係。雖然Monroe的禁區數據並非很糟，比聯盟平均稍低的命中率配上大量的出手導致他成為ShotScore的倒數名單之一。
Despite his troubles last season, Monroe remains a very strong NBA prospect. With Monroe, Andre Drummond, and Josh Smith the Pistons seem well positioned to dominate the interior for years to come. There is little doubt that Monroe will improve both close to the basket and away from it as his game matures, but as it stands, he is notable for his inefficiency.
儘管他上季的毛病，Monroe依然是非常看好的NBA未來之星。在擁有Monroe、Andre Drummond和Josh Smith後，活塞隊似乎在將來會統治禁區。對於Monroe未來在籃下和外圍技術將更加進步這件事沒有什麼人會懷疑，但現況來說，他的效率值得注意。
None of these players are bad basketball players; in fact most of them are really good even compared to their NBA peers. When it comes to shooting efficiency, however, each of these players has an important issue or two to address.
以上這些球員都並非不好的NBA球員。事實上，即使和NBA同儕比較起來，大多數還是相當優秀的球員。但當提到投籃效率時，這幾位球員便有重要的問題需要解決。
心得：
這幾位選手搭配「上籃高手」的話滿有趣的，很差的上籃命中率影響其實很大。
這幾位多數都是「爛的出手選擇」配上「大量出手」導致效率很糟。
要說真的投籃技巧很爛嗎？我倒不覺得
但這兩點就足夠傷害球隊了，可見出手選擇的重要性。
除了盧小比外，他應該是真的要多練練投籃和上籃了!!!!
畢竟他不像Russ和Ellis一樣是自己硬上的球員。
我想這份比較文要是能以每100次出手來比會更有趣吧！
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